Currency Note

Strong US labour data rocks the pound

By Roseanne Bradley October 4th, 2023

Yesterday's US jobs data boosted the US dollar

The pound lost almost a third of a per cent against the US dollar yesterday as US job openings data beat market expectations.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the JOLTs job openings stood at 9.6 million on the last day of August, well above the forecasted 8.8 million, which could help make the case for the Federal Reserve to continue keeping interest rates paused.

European natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Tuesday, to around $37 per megawatt-hour, the lowest in over a week, following a 6% on Monday. This may be down to mild weather forecasts for October and low demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its interest rate at 4.1% yesterday, extending the rate pause for the fourth consecutive month. This move was in line with market estimates and RBA policymakers warned further monetary tightening may be needed to lower inflation to the target of 2-3% in late 2025.

The trial for Sam Bankman-Fried began in Manhattan yesterday as the ex-CEO and founder of FTX faces seven conspiracy and fraud counts for allegedly siphoning billions in investors’ money.

Amid a controversial rise in unregulated buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) products, the head of Amex UK, Hannah Lewis said to the Observer, she does not expect BNPL to displace the credit card market, but that her company is clearly not above jumping on the bandwagon.

In an interview with Prospect magazine this morning, the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey said, “I oppose changing the UK’s 2% inflation target.” There has been nothing more since this statement

This morning, the HCOB Spain composite purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) rose to 50.1 in September, up from August’s 10-month low of 48.6. While only marginal, the growth signals a rebound in private sector activity.

S&P Global will release its services PMIs for the EU, France, Germany, the UK and the US later today.

European Central Bank president, Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak tomorrow at the Bank’s sixth Conference on Monetary Policy, which will be a hybrid session that you can register for online..

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GBP: Choppy pound ahead of PMI data

The pound fell to fresh 2023 lows yesterday against the US dollar, economists expect this to continue unless there is a convincing improvement in economic and risk sentiment.

GBP/USD: the past year

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EUR: Fresh 2023 low against the dollar on Tuesday

Following an unexpectedly strong US jobs report, the euro fell to a fresh 2023 low on Tuesday against the US dollar. The single currency made a modest rebound by the end of the session but remains close to 3% down since the start of September.

 

USD: Hotter-than-expected JOLTS shake stocks

Wall Street stocks shed gains yesterday as the better-than-expected US jobs report docked dollar investors’ appetites over worries that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. The Dow Jones sank 430 points and the Nasdaq sank 1.9%.

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