Currency Note

Strong pound ahead of Autumn Statement

By Roseanne Bradley November 20th, 2023

Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer is due to present the Autumn Statement this week

The pound gained 1.7% against the US dollar last week following disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US which made it difficult for the greenback to find demand.

The US dollar remains on the back foot as data confirmed expectations that the US Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate hiking cycle. The US dollar lost 0.25% against the euro on Friday, despite surging against the pound earlier in the day following weaker-than-expected UK retail sales.

The Japanese yen also gained 0.61% against the US dollar on Friday.

US housing starts rose 1.9% to an annualized rate of 1.372 million in October, beating forecasts of 135 million as both single and multi-family starts increased as limited supply in the resale market has boosted new construction in the US.

Here’s what’s coming up this week…

Tomorrow, US traders will be looking forward to the Fed’s November meeting and the US existing home sales figures.

Wednesday is busy for US economists, with jobless claims and durable goods orders. In the UK, we’ll receive the Autumn Statement and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy report hearings, which could add volatility to the markets.

Thanksgiving falls on Thursday and sterling investors will be keeping an eye out for the preliminary manufacturing and services PMI reports for the UK, France and Germany.

Friday brings S&P Global preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for the US and insight into Germany’s business confidence in November.

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GBP: Listen out for comments from Bailey

Today, BoE governor Andrew Bailey will speak at the Henry Plumb memorial lecture, however, it’s unlikely he’ll shed light on monetary policy in his speech.

GBP/USD: the past year

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EUR: German producer prices fall

In Germany, producer prices dropped 11% in October, in line with expectations and marking the fourth consecutive month of falling prices, largely due to a base effect from last year.

USD: On the back foot

Market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations kept the US dollar on the back foot last week. The dollar index hovered around its lowest levels in 11 weeks this morning as the Fed’s dovish sentiment added pressure to the investors.

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