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Sterling ended last week down against its main rivals. Editorial credit: Traceyaphotos 2, via Shutterstock.
Sterling had a tricky end to last week after the latest interest rate announcement from the Bank of England came with the caveat that the decision was finely balanced.
GBP/USD fell to its lowest in over a month on Friday after the release of upbeat US manufacturing data. The euro also fell against the US dollar but has picked up again this morning. The GBP/EUR rate fell slightly to end the week around a third of a per cent down.
Business activity in the UK expanded at its slowest pace since November this month. The uncertainty caused by the upcoming election contributed to reduced activity.
This week, the European Union will formally open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Member states agreed to a negotiating framework in news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called a ‘historic step’ in Ukraine’s history.
Sales of previously built homes in the US slipped for the third consecutive month in May. Just over four million previously built homes were sold last month as the median home sale price climbed to $419,300 — a record high.
Here’s what to look out for this week…
The German Ifo Business Climate survey lands this morning.
Wednesday brings the German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey for July before Thursday sees the US take centre stage with durable goods orders and GDP figures for Q1.
French and Italian inflation feature on Friday, before US personal income and spending follow in the afternoon. We’ll also get PCE price increases, the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of inflation.
The results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections will be announced next Sunday. The French voting system is even more complicated than the UK’s, with the top two candidates in each of the 577 local constituencies (assuming no one person secures more than 50%) from the first vote heading to a run-off the following week.
Keir Starmer was in Scotland last Friday, where he said that we would not allow the SNP government to hold an independence referendum in the next parliament. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage meanwhile claimed Ofcom had deliberately underrepresented his party, a claim the regulator denied.
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GBP: Bank hangover
Markets are still digesting last week’s BoE decision. While the choice to leave rates on hold was expected it has put some strain on sterling. What was perhaps more surprising was the language used to explain it.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Manufacturing setback
HCOB German Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.4 in June, down from last month’s figure and well below forecasts of 46.4. New orders fell sharply and export sales declined at the fastest rate since March.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Still rising
The US dollar used the S&P’s flash manufacturing PMI data for June as a launchpad for further gains on Friday. Services and manufacturing indexes were both on the rise, which helped contain any further talk of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
EUR/USD: the past year
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