UK unemployment falls to 4.1%

UK unemployment rate decreased in July (mundissima / Shutterstock.com)

The US dollar made marginal gains yesterday against rival currencies, the pound and euro, adding just under half a per cent to its Monday gains.

This boost may have been fuelled by steady US consumer inflation expectations, which were unchanged at 3% in August, matching June and July forecasts.

This morning, the Office for National Statistics revealed that the UK unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in the previous period and compared to market forecasts of 4.2%. The currency markets have yet to react.

A hard-hitting 400-page report from former head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, sparked conversation yesterday, stating that the EU ‘needs €800bn-a-year spending boost to avert agonizing decline.’

Draghi continued, “We are already in crisis mode and to ignore this is to slide into a situation we don’t want to have.”

Over in the US, 10 former top military officials announced their endorsement of presidential candidate Kamala Harris in a letter warning that her rival, Donald Trump, is a “danger to our national security and democracy.” Harris and Trump will take to the stand for a debate tonight.

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GBP: GDP growth expected

Tomorrow morning, the latest stats on the performance of the British economy are expected from the Office for National Statistics. Current forecasts expect the economy to have grown by 0.2% in July from June 2024, following a period of no change between June and May.

GBP/USD: the past year                   

EUR: Braced for ECB policy decision

With few high-impact economic releases to look forward to early this week, euro investors brace themselves for the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank on Thursday. Markets forecast the rate to fall from August’s 4.25% to 4.0%. If all goes to plan, this will mark the second rate decrease in 2024.

GBP/EUR: the past year

USD: Quiet Tuesday ahead of inflation

There is little on the economic docket in the US today, however, this afternoon’s presidential debate will attract attention. Tomorrow afternoon, US inflation and core inflation figures are expected for August. Markets currently forecast the annual rate to fall slightly from 2.9% in July to 2.7% in August. However, you’ll have to read Thursday’s currency note to see if that goes to plan.

EUR/USD: the past year

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