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The US dollar gained 0.85% against the pound yesterday
The US dollar was the top-performing currency yesterday, strengthening by a cent against the pound and just over half a cent against the euro.
These gains were likely influenced by a surge in US job openings in August. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the US added 329,000 jobs last month, taking open positions to over 8 million, the highest since May and beating expectations of 7.65m.
This renewed strength could also have been influenced by reports of escalating conflict in the Middle East which spurred demand for safe-haven assets. In response to these tensions, key US stocks the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow declined by 1.2%, 0.9% and 173 points, respectively.
New ISM figures revealed that the US manufacturing industry continued to shrink in September, with the reading remaining unchanged at 47.2 in September, slightly missing forecasts of 47.5 as the weak demand experienced in August stretched even further.
At the other end of the spectrum, the US logistics sector jumped to 58.6 in September from 56.4 in August, pointing to the highest industry growth rate in over two years. This marks the tenth consecutive increase for the sector, backing rumours that the industry is back on solid footing.
Further east, the euro area inflation rate fell to 1.8% in September, the lowest since April 2021 and beating forecasts of 1.9%. This result likely brought tears of joy to European Central Bank policymakers who have been eying the 2% target like hawks.
The British Retail Consortium reported that UK shop prices are falling at the quickest rate since 2021 despite increased fresh food inflation. The overall shop price deflation was 0.6% in September, following 0.3% in August.
This morning, Japanese consumer confidence increased ever-so-slightly to 36.9 in September from 36.8 in August. Despite the small gain, the latest figure reflected the highest consumer morale since April.
Wednesday’s economic docket is relatively quiet, with the unemployment rate in the euro area expected to increase slightly from 6.4% to 6.5% in August, followed by a handful of Federal Reserve speeches this afternoon.
Tomorrow morning, the focus will be on the UK services industry’s performance in September which is expected to have shrunk on last month’s reading but remain in the green.
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GBP: Manufacturing shrinks slightly but remains afloat
S&P Global revealed that the UK manufacturing PMI, which measures the industry’s performance, fell to 51.5 in September 2024 from 52.5 in August. The decline reflects a loss on last month’s performance, however, all readings above 50 signal growth so the sector remains in good graces, but only slightly.
EUR: Core inflation remains a nuisance
As eurozone headline inflation came in at 1.8% in September, down from 2.2%, core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) slipped to 2.7% from 2.8%. These results came in below target and have raised economists’ expectations for a sizeable 50 basis point rate cut in either October or December.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Two more rate cuts in the works
Jerome Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve, indicated in a speech on Monday that the central bank expects to implement two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, which is currently less than market estimates.
EUR/USD: the past year
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