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The euro is anxiously awaiting the outcome of the French government vote this evening.
The euro stood firm in the face of political adversity on Tuesday, ceding only a little territory to its rivals as the French government prepares to face a vote of no confidence this evening. Unexpectedly hot data from US labour market meanwhile helped the US dollar keep sterling at bay.
EUR/USD actually climbed by a third of a cent in a volatile day’s trading for that pair. The pound and the euro fluctuated but ended proceedings largely unchanged. For GBP/USD, the pound’s gains were modest and held below the “technical” ceiling that might have prompted some complicated mathematics and further advances for the pound.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) released data that rebuffed some of the more upbeat assessments of consumer activity in November. According to the BRC, the UK’s November retail sales were lower than both the three-month and 12-month average, which themselves stand at a modest 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.
The American economy added 7.74mn jobs in October, according to yesterday’s JOLTs job openings data. That was several hundred thousand above consensus forecasts and September’s figure, as professional and business services combined to drive the increase. Despite the large increase, the total number of job opportunities stood at its third lowest level of 2024.
We often talk in these mailers about economic output but less so about fertility rates and the knock-on effect on long-term growth. The number of babies born in the European Union hit a record low in 2023. According to Eurostat, total births across all 27 member states fell to 3.65mn last year, the lowest figure since records began in 1961 and well below the mid-60s peak of almost 7mn. Eurostat had earlier predicted that total births would number 4mn.
With Christmas around the corner, Smart Currency Group is proud to be supporting the Big Give Christmas Challenge, organised by Solidarity Sports. The initiative aims to raise £400,000 in vital support for families in need, such as food, blankets, winter clothing and energy top ups. This is a matter very close to our hearts and, thanks to the Childhood Trust, all donations made before 10 December will be doubled. Please click here to donate and to read more about this wonderful charity. All donations – big or small – are greatly appreciated.
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GBP: Retail drag
The BRC report caused something of a stir on a data-starved day. It’s important to note that this is not is not the official retail sales figures. Those will be released by the Office for National Statistics the week before Christmas. Still, reports of falling consumer activity in what is usually a key month for the retail sector certainly did not help the pound’s cause.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Stable but vulnerable
The euro showed admirable resilience to uncertainty in Paris yesterday. It’s safe to say there will be no such reprieve should a vote of no confidence pass. That would open up a seperate can of worms, the likes of which currency markets rarely react to well.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Workers quit for new roles
An interesting sidecar to the JOLTs report was news that the number of “quits” – those who have voluntarily left their positions – rose to 3.33mn in October, the highest level in five months. Perhaps it was this that meant the strong headline labour figures didn’t boost the US dollar by as much as would normally be expected.
EUR/USD: the past year
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