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The pound-to-euro rate slid to its lowest level in five months yesterday as eurozone inflation declined more than expected to 2.9% in October.
The markets had forecast a decline from 4.3% in September to 3.3% but were pleasantly surprised with the 2.9% reading. This remains above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, but the ease in headline rate suggests policymakers are doing the right thing to combat high inflation.
The euro area economy shrank 0.1% on quarter in the three months to September, worse than a flat reading and following a 0.2% rise in the previous quarter.
In the US, the 20-city home price index rose 2.2% year-on-year in August 2023, marking the biggest rise in seven months.
UK house prices increased by 0.9% in October, Nationwide Building Society reports, likely reflecting a limited supply of properties for buyers to choose from.
Cost-cutting plans to close railway station ticket offices in England were announced to be scrapped yesterday as the “government had asked train operators to withdraw their proposals,” said transport secretary, Mark Harper. This move follows close to 750,000 negative responses from the public.
The British Retail Consortium reported that UK shop price inflation rose at the slowest pace in over 12 months in October. Annual shop price inflation dropped to 5.2% from 6.2% in September, adding to signs that the country’s high inflation rate will resume its fall.
This afternoon, economists will receive the latest figures for US manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to increase to 50, JOLTs job openings, which are expected to fall slightly to 9.2 million, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
The consensus is for the Central Bank to leave the rate unchanged at 5.5%, but we’ll find out at 7 pm (UK time) tonight if that’s the case.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your Business Trader on 020 7898 0500 to get started.
GBP: Warnings to lower interest rates
Ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision, the monetary policy committee are said to be considering lowering interest rates to avoid a recession. The current split between policymakers is 1-6-2 for a 25 basis-point cut, hold and 25 bp rate hike.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Inflation not yet defeated
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday that while eurozone inflation has fallen significantly, that, “We must not let up too soon, rates must be sufficiently high for sufficiently long.”
USD: Stocks waver ahead of Fed decision
Stocks in the US ended higher as Tuesday’s session came to an end. Investors continue to weigh fresh economic results and await the Fed’s decision tomorrow. The Dow Jones, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 added 123 points, 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
