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Global markets turned risk adverse yesterday, allowing the US dollar to climb.
Scarce news on the economic front meant strong American data and more troubling news from the Middle East dominated proceedings on Wednesday, contributing to a risk off tone and more US dollar gains.
GBP/USD slid by around a third of a cent and EUR/USD by a similar margin. The pound and the euro moved by a smaller margin but sterling remains in and around its recent highs.
Tuesday’s unexpectedly bright US jobs report helped the US dollar mount a long-awaited comeback. That theme was continued yesterday, as private payroll data suggested the labour market had thus far avoided a downturn. The private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, well above forecasts of 120,000.
Fighting continued in Southern Lebanon yesterday. Israel and Iran traded ballistic missiles and increasingly ominous threats. Currency markets are watching the events closely and that scrutiny is supporting the US dollar as investors transfer their assets out from riskier holdings.
Eurozone unemployment held steady at 6.4% in August. Unemployment remains highest in Spain and Greece and lowest in Poland and Malta, while youth unemployment eased slightly.
The US vice presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz was unusual (for recent times, at least) for the civil conduct of the participants. Few would fail to spot the ideological poles between the two men but for one night at least they were able to put their differences aside and debate substantive policy issues. With weeks left in the campaign, the race remains a dead heat.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer opened talks with a shared call for greater cooperation between the UK and the EU. “I firmly believe that the British public wants to return to pragmatic, sensible leadership when it comes to dealing with our closest neighbours”, Starmer said.
Global stocks turned slightly lower yesterday as markets looked for more clarity over geopolitical goings on. A slight downturn in Europe on Wednesday carried over into the US morning session.
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GBP: Fighting risk
Like the euro, sterling is struggle to combat risk flows towards the US dollar. News that the government is seeking a warmer relationship with the European Union may prove a welcome distraction for currency markets.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Healthy employment
So far, the eurozone has managed to keep unemployment close to historic lows. Despite dealing with weak growth, policymakers will be happy to see their actions are not causing the kind of mass joblessness consistent with recession.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Labour looking up
A much improved set of labour data has helped the US dollar immensely. Data that supports slower interest rate easing from the Federal Reserve is likely to support a stronger US dollar, as is ongoing uncertainty and risk appetite.
EUR/USD: the past year
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