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Monday was a quiet day in currency markets before a riskier backdrop looms later this week.
Currency markets made a tentative start to the week, as focus remains drawn to geopolitical events and the Federal Reserve. Despite the lack of action, sterling clung onto recent gains over the euro and continued to make up ground on the US dollar.
Global markets are anxiously awaiting news from ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken flew to Tel Aviv for eleventh hour talks yesterday. Israeli prime minster Benjamin Netanyahu called the initial talks ‘promising’, although whether they will be enough to prevent an escalation remains a substantial source of anxiety.
Goldman Sachs has this week decreased its projected likelihood of a recession in the USA next year from 25% to 20%. The move felt a bid contradictory given the bank had only a few weeks ago made the opposite decision, yet it underlined just how much recent American data had changed the mood.
European stock markets picked up from where they left off last week. At the close, all major indexes had recorded positive days, although US markets had a trickier start to proceedings as geopolitical fears weighed heavy.
Rightmove director Tim Bannister has said that the Bank of England’s interest rate cut has triggered a ‘buzz’ of housing activity. The decision has yet to fully feed through into mortgage rates, but Bannister noted an uptick in enquiries as buyers look to get on the housing ladder.
Currency markets are predicting Sweden’s Riksbank will again cut interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting today. Policymakers had signposted further cuts at their June meeting and last week’s inflation report further increased the chance of a cut.
British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch is among seven people missing after the sinking of a superyacht in the Mediterranean Sea. Lynch helped co-found many valuable companies, including Autonomy Corporation and Darktrace.
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GBP: GBP/USD in reach of highs
Sterling’s ascent against the US dollar has put it within touching distance of its highest level this year. The pound has now recovered by almost three cents from where it was just a few weeks ago.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: Sharing the spoils
It isn’t just the pound that’s going well. EUR/USD has also made some impressive progress, ending Monday’s trading at its best since the very first days of 2024.
GBP/EUR: the past year
USD: Investors bet on soft landing
A Bank of America survey revealed around three quarters of economists believe the US economy will escape a recession. That’s a massive reversal in mood in such a short space of time, although markets continue to worry about geopolitics and what has been perceived as a slow response from the Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD: the past year
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