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GBP remains close to a two-year high against the US dollar
The pound and euro both ended last week in positive territory against the US dollar as the improving risk mood continues to make it difficult for the dollar to gather strength.
On Friday, investors heard morale improved among German business leaders as the climate indicator edged up slightly to 85.5 in February. This is higher than January’s three-and-a-half-year low of 85.2 and aligned with expectations.
The ECB consumer expectations survey showed inflation expectations over the next 12 months crept up to 3.3% in January from 3.2% in December which marked the lowest reading since February 2022.
Energy regulator Ofgem said that the energy price cap in Great Britain will fall by £238 to £1,690 this spring thanks to lower gas prices and a mild winter.
Building society, Nationwide has put more than 300 jobs at risk in the lender’s third round of cuts over the past 12 months as part of a business restructuring plan. This takes total job losses over the past year to nearly 800 from a 13,000-strong workforce.
The British Chamber of Commerce said this weekend that more than half of UK retailers and exporters have been affected by the disruption to Red Sea trade from Houthi rebel attacks on cargo ships. For some businesses, the price of a shipping container from Asia to Europe has increased as much as 300%.
This morning, we’re due to hear from two BoE members, Christine Lagarde of the European Central Bank and the US Treasury, which will hold two-year and five-year note auctions.
Other things to look out for this week include German consumer confidence and US durable goods orders on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the European Central Bank will release its economic sentiment for February which is forecast to increase slightly from 96.2 in January to 96.8.
Thursday will bring fresh US personal spending data alongside the German inflation rate and unemployment rate. Then, the week will be wrapped up on Friday with several manufacturing PMI releases for the UK, the US, and most of the eurozone.
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GBP: Retail sales balance to improve
This morning, investors will receive the latest figures for the UK’s distributive trade figures for February, which are expected to increase from -50 to -47.
EUR: Inflation-heavy week
Investors in the euro area await inflation rate figures for France, Spain, Germany, Italy and the Euro Area which are due on Friday. The headline rate in the euro area is forecast to fall from 2.8% in January to 2.5% in February.
USD: Steady dollar index
The dollar index held steady this morning as investors cautiously await a key US inflation report that could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on monetary policy.
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