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The sun is shining on British housing once again
Despite a lack of high-level economic data released yesterday, the pound continued to strengthen against the euro. Sterling is currently 0.67% higher than this time last month and over 4% higher than this time last year.
Why not lock in this rate with a forward contract? Speak to your account manager today on 020 3918 7255.
The dollar remained steady yesterday despite falling from peak levels on Monday. US Federal Reserve members Neill Kashkari and Susan Collins suggested that we will likely see rate cuts later this year should the economy meet expectations.
There remain rumours of divergence in expectations for the eurozone’s monetary policy as markets indicate the European Central Bank could cut interest rates before the Bank of England. Later today the ECB publishes its economic bulletin.
Yesterday, the US trade deficit narrowed to $773.4 billion which, while it seems like a lot, is the lowest it has been in three years, down a whopping 22% from 2022 due to a slower demand for goods and falling cost of oil.
The Halifax house price index revealed that UK house prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2023 in the year to date. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise and is expected to be due to lower mortgage rates which have boosted buyer and seller confidence.
British supermarket chain Sainsbury’s revealed plans to increase the use of automated tills, warehouse robots and AI-forecasting tools as part of a £1bn cost-cutting plan. The chief executive of Sainsbury’s did not rule out job losses as a result of the change, saying instead that workers will learn to adapt their ways of working.
Investors will receive the latest figures for US initial jobless claims later today. Markets forecast the claim number to rise to 227k from 224k last week.
This afternoon, central bankers from the ECB, Fed and Bank of England take to the stand. Investors will be keeping an ear out to see if they can shed any light on monetary policy.
Tomorrow morning, we’ll see if preliminary estimates regarding Germany’s consumer price inflation were accurate. Markets expect the year-on-year rate to fall from 3.7% to 2.9% in January 2024.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: Economists recognise GBP strength
Economists recognised the pound as the best-performing G10 currency in January which gained 1.6% against the euro over the month.
GBP/USD: the past year
EUR: “Labour market resilient, services inflation sticky”
This is what executive board member of the ECB, Isabel Schnabel said in conversation with the Financial Times. She also made comments that the data cautions the bank should it cut rates too soon.
EUR/GBP: the past year
USD: Fed comments don’t impact dollar
Speaking to Reuters, Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said, they “remain focused on Fed’s inflation goal until confident inflation is returning durably to 2% target.” Their policy stance is currently restrictive and is well-positioned for the current outlook.
USD/EUR: the past year
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