Currency Note

UK GDP rises to 0.4%

By Jonathan Cook July 11th, 2024

UK GDP recovered in May after flatlining in April.

The UK economy expanded by 0.4% in May, well above forecasts in the 0.2% area. That matches March’s growth and comes after the economy recorded no growth in April.

Sterling rose this morning against its rivals on the back of the news. GBP/USD was in touching distance of its highest level since March in early-morning trading, while the euro also strengthened.

The Bank of England’s Huw Pill also contributed to sterling’s strength. In a speech yesterday, the Bank’s chief economist said the economy was making strong progress in its efforts to conquer inflation, although he tempered that with the observation that services inflation and wage growth remained ‘uncomfortably strong’.

Other sources of meaty data remained hard to come by. However, you can find all the most important figures, along with expert analysis and currency predictions from leading banks in our July to September Quarterly Forecast. Keep your eyes peeled to secure your copy — it will be hitting your inbox today.

UK prime minster Keir Starmer made his first real appearance on the global stage yesterday at a Nato summit in Washington. With the world’s cameras trained on him, Starmer discussed security and defence spending, while also talking through his plans for reform in the House of Lords.

Joe Biden continues to come under pressure to drop out of the US presidential election. Even erstwhile allies like Nancy Polisi are calling for a rethink. Pelosi yesterday stopped short of endorsing Biden for a second term and urged him to make a decision before time ran out.

Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.

GBP: Feeling good

The pound rose to around its highest level against the US dollar in a month yesterday. Many will be hoping that the feelgood factor surrounding the change of government persists for a little while longer.
GBP/USD: the past year                   

From To

 

EUR: All quiet

The euro is taking an early Summer break this week. As the pound and the US dollar thrash it out, the euro has bobbed along in a stable range without the drama of last week to disrupt it.

GBP/EUR: the past year

From To

 

USD: Data in focus

After a few days dominated by the Federal Reserve, it’s nice and reassuring to turn our attention to key data once again. US inflation figures will be scrutinised today, with experts predicting the headline number to fall to 3.1%.

EUR/USD: the past year

From To

 

For more on currencies and currency risk management strategies, please get in touch with your Smart Currency Business account manager on 020 7898 0500 or your Private Client Account Manager on 020 7898 0541.