020 7898 0500The dollar rose against all counterparts except the yen on Tuesday, despite a quiet day on the data front. The American currency found support from the release of a new Reuters Poll that suggested there is still a 60% chance of an interest rate hike in 2015.
Over the past few months, many forecasters have attempted to predict when the world’s largest economy will raise the benchmark. September was thought to be the most likely since rates have been set at a record low since the economic crisis; however, the Federal Reserve disappointed markets last week when they confirmed their decision to hold off. Now however, 72 of 93 analysts polled by the news agency have picked December as the most likely month – and while this seems fairly certain there were similar predications about June before the unexpected contraction in first quarter growth put the break on this.
Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley wrote: “The window for a rate hike this year has narrowed. While December remains in play, a rate hike this year is not a foregone conclusion.” It seems the old saying remains true, the only certainty is uncertainty – in the foreign exchange market anyway.
