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Are US prices on the rise again?
In a quiet day for UK data, the pound held steady at close to its new normal, more than 3% stronger than last year, against the euro. However, it slipped a little against the US dollar (while remaining 5% up on last year overall).
In the UK housing market, surveyors showed continuing optimism on rising property prices, with the RICS House Price Balance improving to -10, from -18 last month. However, surveyors warned that suspicion that interest rate falls would be delayed in the UK was keeping the market cool.
Trouble too, for commercial property, where estate agent Savill’s saw profits collapse in 2023. “Globally, transaction volumes were down 44%. That is as bad as the very worst part of the global financial crisis and the early Nineties’ recession”, said CEO Mark Ridley.
Inflation in Spain was confirmed at 2.8% in the past year and we will shortly get a reading for French and Italian inflation (predicted at 2.9% and 0.3% respectively).
A side note – British retirees in these countries receive the UK ‘triple lock’ pension increase of 8.5% starting next month. So, if a more affordable, inflation-busting retirement in the sun appeals, this is your last chance to register for tomorrow’s Your Overseas Home Virtual Event. Register free, right here. It includes seminars from Smart Currency on all aspects of currency and payments when you buy or move abroad.
In the USA, retail sales were well up in February, by 0.6%. The US Producer Price Index also leapt by 0.6%, indicating a future rise in inflation. This implied threat of a delay to interest rate falls had the effect of depressing the stock markets across the western world, while providing a shot in the arm for the dollar.
The working week ends with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the USA this afternoon.
In business and political news, Labour Party leaders have been attempting to reassure business leaders that a win for them in the next general election needn’t frighten the horses. For example, their “right for workers to switch off” outside of business hours will be a code of practice, not a law, and workers can request not to have zero hours contracts, it won’t be an outright ban.
Will sterling’s stability last another week? Next week is one with inflation, PMI and retail sales readings for the UK, plus interest rate decisions both in the USA and UK.
Make sure any upcoming transactions are protected against the risks of sudden market movements. Secure a fixed exchange rate now with a forward contract; call your account manager on 020 3918 7255 to get started.
GBP: Sterling faces critical week
Sterling weakened marginally yesterday due to rising inflation expectations in the USA hitting the stock markets. Next week is a “hang on to your hats” sort of week, with an interest rate decision from the Bank of England and several high-level readings – inflation, PMI and retail sales. Definitely one to consider locking in your rate ahead of.
GBP/USD past year
EUR: Dovish ECB comments hit euro
It was declines almost across the board yesterday following calls for interest rate cuts from one of the European Central Bank’s interest rate setters. Final results for inflation in France and Italy today will strengthen or weaken Mr Yannis Stournaras’s claim, and on Monday the final result for eurozone inflation is expected to be 2.6%.
EUR/USD past year
USD: Hot PPI boost dollar
A reversal for Producer Price Inflation, rising by 0.6% last month, strengthened the dollar yesterday – while weakening the stock market – in the week before an interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve.
Today we’ll hear the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations, (a reading not just of Michigan consumers, but of US consumers by the University of Michigan).
For more on currencies and currency risk management strategies, please get in touch with your Smart Currency Business account manager on 020 3918 7255 or your Private Client account manager on 020 7898 0541.
USD/GBP past year
